Neptune and Company, Inc.

(970) 416-6488

Over the past 15 years, Dr. Duffy has worked on numerous applied statistical problems that require interdisciplinary collaboration among academic, private and government stakeholders. Because of his experience applying statistical methods to a wide range of problems, he is ideally suited to lead interdisciplinary projects. Dr. Duffy has recently been focusing on the development, application and implementation of spatial and temporal statistical models for the analysis of environmental and ecological data. Most of his work requires the communication of technical statistical concepts to collaborating professionals from non-statistical fields. Consequently, he has honed his ability to communicate concisely with collaborators. Dr. Duffy has maintained an active role in research involving the application of machine learning statistical methods to the study of high-latitude ecosystems. He is currently an affiliate faculty member in the Department of Forest Sciences at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, and assists Dr. Scott Rupp (Director of the Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning: SNAP) with the implementation of research activities at SNAP. Dr. Duffy has published work that presents spatial statistical approaches to the application of ANOVA models for ecological data, as well as other important contributions to the development of statistical models that quantify the linkages between fire, climate and vegetation in boreal ecosystems.

Dr. Duffy designed his own Interdisciplinary Studies PhD program in Ecological Modeling from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. This interdisciplinary studies doctoral program combined applied spatial statistical sampling design and analysis with the development of a spatially-explicit cellular automata model for interactions among fire, climate and vegetation in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. Several manuscripts have been published from his dissertation and he remains active in research efforts related to high-latitude ecosystems though his work as an affiliate faculty member at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. He is currently either PI or co-I on funded projects for the Joint Fire Science Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association and the National Science Foundation and is currently working collaboratively on projects with government researchers from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service–National Wildlife Refuge, Bureau of Land Management-Alaska Fire Service, United States Geological Survey, and the National Park Service in Alaska.

Dr. Duffy has prepared and presented several statistical workshops for the EPA. These included topics on: linear regression; analysis of variance; sample size calculations; design of experiments; parametric and nonparametric hypothesis testing; ratio statistics; statistical modeling and bootstrapping. These workshops were presented to scientists within the National Risk Management Research Lab and the Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation programs.

Dr. Duffy received his BA from University of Colorado, Boulder with a double major in 1) Mathematics, and 2) Environmental Population and Organismic Biology in 1995. He received his MA in Mathematics from the University of Montana, Missoula, in the spring of 1998. Dr. Duffy graduated with his PhD in Ecological Modeling from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks in summer of 2006.

Dr. Duffy's C.V.

Selected Publications:

Kasischke, E.S., Verblya, D.L. Rupp, T.S., McGuire, A.D., Murphy, K.A., Jandt, R. Allen, J.L., Hoy, E.E., Duffy, P.A., Calef, M., Turetsky, M.R. Alaska’s changing fire regime – Implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research (in print). Hu, F. S., P. E. Higuera, J. E. Walsh, W. L. Chapman, P. A. Duffy, L. B. Brubaker, and M. L. Chipman (2010), Tundra Burning in Alaska: Linkages to Climatic Change and Sea-Ice Retreat. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences (in press).

Schimel, D., Keller, M., Duffy, P., Alves, L., Aulenbach, S., Johnson, B., Hehn, T., Kampe, T., Kao, B., Kuester, M., Loescher, H., McKenzie, V., Powell, H. 2009. The NEON Strategy: Enabling Continental Scale Ecological Forecasting. May 2009. http://www.neoninc.org/sites/default/files/NEON.Strategy.May2009.Release2_0.pdf

Trainor, S.F., Calef, M., Natcher, D., Chapin III, F.S., McGuire, A.D., Huntington, O., Duffy, P., Rupp, T.S., DeWilde, L. Kwart, M., Fresco, N., Lovecraft, A.L., 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska. Polar Research. 28, p.100-118.

Balshi M.S., McGuire A.D., Duffy P., Flannigan M., Kicklighter D.W., Melillo J., 2009. Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st Century, Global Change Biology, 15: 1491-1510.

Balshi M.S., McGuire A.D., Duffy P., Flannigan M., Walsh J., and Melillo J. 2009, Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology. 15: 578-600.

Copeland, T.L., Black, P.K., Duffy, P.A., DiCaprio, A.P., O’Hehir, D.J., and Kerger, B.D., 2008. Comparison of congener-specific and Araclor quantitation methods for assuring remediation of polychlorinated biphenyls and associated dibenzofurans at a former wastewater treatment plant. Society of Toxicology, 47th annual meeting, March 16th-20th, Seattle WA.

Duffy, P.A., Epting, J., Graham, J.M., Rupp, T.S., McGuire, A.D., 2007. Analysis of Alaskan Burn Severity Patterns Using Remotely Sensed Data. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16(3), p.277-284.

Duffy, P. A., Walsh, J.E., Graham, J.M., Mann, D.H., Rupp, T.S., 2005. Impacts of Large-Scale Atmospheric-Ocean Variability on Alaskan Fire Season. Ecological Applications, 15(4), p. 1317-1330.

Rupp, T.S., Starfield, A.M., Chapin, F.S., Duffy, P. 2002. Modeling Boreal Forest Dynamics in Interior Alaska. Climatic Change 55: 213-233.

Swanson, W., Duffy, P. 1999. Performing Background Value Comparisons for Inorganic Chemicals. Standard Operating Procedure for Los Alamos National Laboratory Environmental Restoration Project. ER-SOP-15.12

Seastedt, T.R., P.A. Duffy, and J.N. Knight 1996. Reverse Fertilization Experiment Produces Mixed Results. Restoration and Management Notes.